The end of the 09 season?

A look at the latest 18Z GFS was very unsettling. It doesnt look like anything is going on for the full 240hr forecast period. There doesnt even seem to be a hint of a trough, even all the way out. The third of the 3 systems ive been talking about appears to be pewtering out well north of us. A small low is forecasted to come through the area Sat. into Sun. but it looks to just bring a few showers. The next chance of rain would be Mon. into Tues. but like i said, there has been no indication of severe storms for the length of the model run.

So, is the 09 season finished? I dont know yet, but it doesnt look good. Ill be sure to post if something pops up, but right now it about looks done.

- Terry

System Number 2

Here goes the WRF model run showing our 1st system finally ejecting out over the great lakes late tomrow into friday morning. That system was whats called a cut-off low and it really ruined the past week as far as severe storms. Check it out swirling away.

After this one, there is going to be a small short wave trough that might cause a few showers towards the weekend, but the next chance of a system is going to be on Tuesday of next week. Heres a look at the 500MB Speeds. Really doesnt look the best for severe storms with this one either, it could change around a little bit but right now it looks like the quiet weather is going to continue. Its been close to three weeks without severe storms.

System Number 1

Heres the first of the three systems i was talking about in my earlier post. Right now, it looks like theres nothing going on with this system but a little light/moderate rainfall. This broken line of rain showers is occuring along a pretty strong cold front. The reason there are no severe storms is because moisture is low and instability is not present. I believe current Td's are in the 58-60 degree range in this region with surface temps in the low 60's and light rain. Its hostile to say the least for even non-severe convective development. Take a look at this water vapor loop, you can really make out the system and that massive influx of dry air pushing in behind the moist air. Its a monster system, but its more bark then bite. The only thing youll notice aside from the rain today will be slightly colder temperatures for the rest of the week associated with the frontal passage.

Take a look at the SPC mosiac. I have archived the image so it wont change with time. Look at the swirl near KCMO, thats the center of the low. I have also included a higher resolution static NEXRAD mosiac.

Heres a visual observation. You can see its overcast with light to moderate showers. Rainfall rates in the region have been in the 0.10-0.30" range.


Thats about it for this one. Ill try to post a new entry later on about the other two systems. I havent had a chance to look at the latest runs, so ill prepare a weather breifing later on tonight.

The Weather is beginning to change.

It looks like some pretty strong systems are going to be heading this way. The first one appears to be pretty strong when it first starts forming, but it looks to deepen and turn into a big cut-off low. When that happens it looks like it may just be rainy and windy. Heres the 3-day, Tuesday GFS model run, 500MB speeds.

 

Right on the heels of that one comes another short-wave trough. It doesnt look that strong here, but could definatly effect the weather. This is the 6.5 day 500MB speeds.

The third of this train of systems shows up in the 216hr GFS run. This one looks pretty strong, and each one poses the potential for storms so ill be watching them. At this point, there are still lots of limiting factors and uncertainties, but what is for certain is that the weather will be changing. Keep an eye here on the site later on this week, i will post updates on these systems later on into the week.

Looks like the weather is changing. Lets hope it brings some storms.

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