Terry Tyler's Mid South Chasing2005 - Terry Tyler
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Name: Terry Tyler


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Thursday, November 05, 2009

Quiet Weather Ahead

Looks like its been pretty quiet here the past few days. I expect this quiet weather to keep on for the next couple weeks. There looks to be a few small upper air disturbances moving in later this week into next week that could provide chances for rain, but none of the models have been indicating any chance of severe storms for the next week or so.

Ill be sure to update the site if it looks like somethings coming.


Friday, October 30, 2009

10/30/09 - Mississippi/Alabama Storms

Today turned out alot better then i thought it would. That front really stalled out overnight and allowed partially clear skies for most of the day. MLCAPEs were in the 500-1000j/kg range with 0-1km helicities starting at 350m2/s2. Initially i stayed in Saltillo waiting to see what the storms were going to be doing, i was going to head south but i was afraid that i wouldent make it there in time. Plus, it was about 12PM and the storms were really starting to look intense on the radar. Lots of discreet activity, lots of small bows and lewps. I was tracking a storm coming out of pontotoc moving NE towards new albany. At the time, it looked pretty intimidating with strong velocity signatures. None of the storms had a warning, so i wasnt sold yet. I watched a few more scans, and then i was a little convinced. I took off north to the storms, and soon the northern most cluser got a severe warning. It was struggling, you could tell it just didnt have it in the storm to make a tornado. It had some moments where it looked like it had a little notch, or a couplet but overall it looked disorganized. I wound up going to get close to the storms where i thought i could get a good view, but it was nothing but trees you couldent make anything out.

Before long, the southern most cluser got a warning, and it looked a little bit better then the one i was on. I decided it was time to head south, and ofcourse east before the line over ran me.



This is the view of the radar, and here is what the storms looked like. One thing that really fascinates me is the shapes the clouds get and the shapes of the clouds on radar. I wish i was using the level 2, because it is pretty cool to look at. Level 2 is almost 4 times higher resolution then what your looking at now. Anyway, heres what it looked like. That white circle with the dot is me, and you can see im looking to the WNW.


 

There you see what appears to be a big gust front. The clouds were very dark, and looked scary but there was no lightning with these storms. The tops were in the 25,000-35,000ft range, and were not hailers either. The velocities on this storm were very frightning looking, but there were no reports of damage and no sign of a lowering. They looked really disorganized and elevated. There were alot of times where a burst of scud would appear and look scary, but they were just regular clouds i guess. Alot of the storms today had severe rotation in the clouds, but there hasnt been any ground confirmation at this time on tornadoes. It seems to me that these storms had the potential to be very bad, but didnt.

Anyway, i rode south down 45 to look at the second severe warned storm. I figured if it looked good i could get pictures, and get east on 78. The winds were pretty strong on the leading edge of this one. I would say in the 40-50mph range. This is the severe warned storm moving in on Saltillo, MS.



It turned into a little tornado outbreak before long. I regreted not heading south, but they were coming my way. Sporadic wind damage was being reported, but was not near as widespread as i expected. Anyway, heres the radar and you can see those storms coming on up.



The conditions are getting better, and you can see tornado warnings exploding in eastcentral, MS. Lots of discreet storms are forming, and the bowing lewp structures are getting hooks and couplets. I headed east, and i was going to wait on one to get a warning when i spotted a hook coming out of a near by storm.



I was driving away from the storm, and it looked pretty bad. Even the doppler itself had placed a rotation icon on it. Its an inflow notch, you can see it. So i headed for the nearest exit and turned around. You must keep in mind, the storm is moving very fast and changing alot. The hook may be there for a little bit, but it will disappear. That hook is basically what your looking for besides the velocity couplets. This one didnt really have a couplet, but the hook looked alot like the last storm i was on.



The nearest exit was Bexar, AL and as you can see it looks like a pair of developing supercells heading my way. I was convinced a tornado warning would come out at any time because these storms did earlier have warnings.



This is the fourth scan showing the hook. Its definatly not something going on with the radar, there is something there. I came up to the tremont exit just in time and looked towards where the hook was. I was a little worried of what i might actually see there but it wasnt much. I am looking at a RFD though. You can make out the curl wrapping around there and the clouds near it. Nothing really too exciting, i expected a little bit more but it was pretty cool looking. It was good to get on a hook signature storm though. When you love storms like i love storms, it really is awesome.



Looks like you can see a clear slot and some kind of wrapping going on like what you would see on a hook. Compare the shape to the shape of those clouds, and youll see its the real thing.

 

The hook as you can see it is looking like a fat thumb. Looks almost identical to the one i chased in Houston, MS.


I rode with the storms east into AL. I regret not sticking around, i could have got on the tornado warned storms that entered my area but overall im happy with what i got. Anythings better then nothing, as you learn a little bit more each time you go out.



Thats about it, I got about 200 miles on the ride. Didnt want to spend too much on this one or risk going too far, the car has been acting up bad after the last chase.

----------* Chase results 09 *  ---------------

Active Days: 10
Tornadoes: 1
Hail: 2.5"
Winds: 75Mph
Miles: 3319.3

outlook -> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1otlk_20091030_1200.html

reports- > http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/091030_rpts.html


Storm Chase in Progress

http://www.chasertv.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=285:terry-tyler&catid=20:chaser-pages&Itemid=82

Watch my progress LIVE.

- Terry


Im a bit disappointed with what im seeing this morning. The brand new NAM run just came out, and it shows the 0-3KM CAPE way lower then it was earlier. Not just that, but the front picked up some major speed. Its 2:07AM now, and the line is just at the Mississippi river. I think that it is way to close, it will be here by morning and not allow enough time to destabalize. If you look at the 0-3KM CAPE, you can clearly see that its not near as robust as it was when i first posted.

Now, the SPCs outlook had me a little more optimistic. They have gone with a slight risk, and actually kept it in north central, MS. As you can see here, they have gone with the %5 probability.

As of now, the winds are really cranking. Were looking at 0-1KM helicity values in the 350-450 m2/s2 range. It wont take much for a storm to rotate in this atmosphere, but the instability profiles are terrible. There is no instability present right now, and if the line gets here too early. The whole day could be ruined.

As of now, im preparing for a possible chase. I just dont know yet. Im going to keep watching this line, and see what its going to do. Its kind of stalled out a little bit now, if it keeps the speed its at. It may allow time for the sun to break, but at any rate. I dont see it possible that we can get enough heating before it gets here.


Thursday, October 29, 2009

Severe Storms Possible

Its looking increasingly possible that we may see severe storms here in the south on Friday. Here is the NAM model. It has been consistant on a narrow axis of 400+ 0-3KM CAPE from the gulf to about the MS/TN border by 21Z.  0-3KM EHIs are looking to be in the 1.5-3.0 range.



The thing is, according to this model. Its not just the 0-3KM CAPE that is good, the overall mean layer, MLCAPE is good as well. The models are showing 1500-2000j/kg.

 

In addition to this instability, just look at this monster trough. It looks like a chainsaw cutting through the country. Your looking at extreme, in some cases 130+mph winds in those levels.



It looks very intimidating in this loop.

And how bout this hodograph from Tupelo. Looks like a pretty strong curve to it, i think we might see something interesting.

Keep an eye towards the site Friday. There could be a chase. If im chasing, i will be live streaming as well.



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